Will Tiger Win the Master's in 2013

With the Master’s quickly upon us, I wanted everyone to know what I think of Tiger’s chance to win this weekend.   Here are some facts on how Tiger finished since his last victory at Augusta in 2005:

40^th

4^th

4^th

6^th

2^nd

2^nd

3^rd

The last 7 champions have finished with the following scores:

-10

-14

-16

-12

-5

+1

-7

In Tiger’s last victory back in 2005, he shot -12 for the weekend. 

Nowadays statistics in sports are becoming more useful to translate ones performance into a measurable rating.   In golf, ShotLink introduced a statistic called Strokes Gained-Putting that provides an accurate way of presenting a player’s putting efficiency.  The idea was first developed by a Columbia Business School Professor and later analyzed by a group from M.I.T. 

  

In a nutshell:  “the statistic simply measures the average number of putts a player takes over 18 holes where chips will skew the calculation.

However, takes into account putting proficiency from various distances and computes the difference between a player's performance on every green – the number of strokes needed to hole out – against the performance of the other players for each round. This ultimately shows how many strokes are gained or lost due to putting for a particular round, for a tournament and over the course of a year.

The statistic is computed by calculating the average number of putts a PGA TOUR player is expected to take from every distance, based on ShotLink data from the previous season. The actual number of putts taken by a player is subtracted from this average value to determine strokes gained or lost. For example, the average number of putts used to hole out from 7 feet 10 inches is 1.5. If a player one-putts from this distance, he gains 0.5 strokes. If he two-putts, he loses 0.5 strokes. If he three-putts, he loses 1.5 strokes.

A player's strokes gained or lost are then compared to the field. For example, if a player gained a total of three strokes over the course of a round and the field gained an average of one stroke, the player's "Strokes Gained Against the Field" would be two.” –PGATOUR.COM

The strokes gained statistic is brought up because given due to the fact that currently Eldrick Tont Woods is ranked 1^st.    

Everyone is looking at Tiger’s driving accuracy as a major deterrent in his chances to win this weekend.  Tiger has never been a very accurate driver off the tee, normally averages in the 59% for fairways hit, where the most accurate drivers usually are in the 70% range.  Most tournaments are won when you are able to putt and Tiger has been rolling the rock really well so far in this early season.  It’s really hard to say if Tiger will win but a good indicator for his success has been shown in the 3^rd round of the Master’s.  Tiger has shot in the 60’s seven times since his pro debut in 1997 and he has six top 5’s and placed 15^th the other time, the last time he accomplished this feat was back in 2008.  Here’s my prediction if the winning score is less than -10, Tiger wins; if the winning score is -11 or greater, I choose the field.  Tiger has not scored better than -10 since his last of his 4 green jackets back in 2005, -12.